The following article was a contribution by Groger Ranks member William Groger.
In our end of season rankings, we mentioned that we would be revisiting our methodology for the first time later this summer. The fall equinox is tomorrow, so as of posting it is still technically the summer. Inspired by Steven Liu’s original analysis of the applicability of our rankings to individual game outcomes, I used game data from the last 3 PACE NSCs and HSNCTs to test new models. While our current model is extremely predictive of games at both national and regular season difficulty, we present parameters that are better optimized to the 6 most recent national tournaments in this analysis article. We are not sure if we will modify our rankings to incorporate the optimized methodology and invite community feedback on the matter.
William Groger is currently a graduate student at Princeton University in Princeton, New Jersey.
