* The following article was a contribution by Groger Ranks member Arjun Nageswaran*.

Before beginning this post, it is worth noting that all the potential rankings in this article will exclude Saratoga A from California. Two players from the Saratoga club were recently (and rightfully) removed for misconduct, and it was an error on our part to not remove them from the rankings before posting the pre-HSNCT rankings. We obviously have zero-tolerance for any misconduct in quizbowl and all future rankings (starting with the ones discussed in this article) will discount any performances from the Saratoga A team with those two players. A special thanks to Nicole Pruitt for catching this error in our pre-HSNCT rankings.

In this article, I wanted to go through three alternative ranking modifications and see how that would change the order of teams. This article is more for public interest rather than anything else, but I hope you guys find some things interesting here! These rankings will take into account all teams rather than just teams going to HSNCT and/or PACE NSC. Additionally, there will be no mACF-only rankings in this article since we plan to release that separately as part of our pre-PACE NSC rankings.

We’ll start with the first one:

**NAQT-Only Rankings**

RANK | TEAM | SCORE | BEST SET |

1 | Stanton College Prep B (FL) | 111.23 | IS-197 |

2 | Hunter A (NY) | 107.38 | IS-201 |

3 | Lambert A (GA) | 105.64 | IS-199 |

4 | Arcadia A (CA) | 105.24 | IS-197 |

5 | Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 104.23 | IS-199 |

6 | Beavercreek A (OH) | 103.13 | IS-195 |

7 | St. Mark’s School of Texas A (TX) | 102.61 | IS-199 |

8 | Phillips Academy A (MA) | 101.72 | IS-199 |

9 | Stanford Online A (CA) | 101.50 | IS-197 |

10 | Ladue A (MO) | 101.24 | IS-195 |

11 | Wayzata A (MN) | 100.94 | IS-197 |

12 | Detroit Country Day A (MI) | 100.52 | IS-201 |

13 | East Brunswick B (NJ) | 100.49 | IS-199 |

14 | Solon A (OH) | 98.85 | IS-195 |

15 | East Brunswick A (NJ) | 98.73 | IS-199 |

16 | Greenhill A (TX) | 98.45 | IS-199 |

17 | TAG Magnet A (TX) | 98.36 | IS-195 |

18 | East Chapel Hill A (NC) | 97.28 | IS-199 |

19 | Burnsville A (MN) | 96.93 | IS-201 |

20 | Georgetown Day A (DC) | 95.47 | IS-195 |

21 | Russell A (KY) | 95.25 | IS-199 |

22 | Raffles A (SG) | 94.96 | IS-195 |

23 | Chattahoochee A (GA) | 94.10 | IS-195 |

24 | Mira Loma A (CA) | 94.09 | IS-197 |

25 | High Tech A (NJ) | 94.03 | IS-195 |

26 | Hunter B (NY) | 93.99 | IS-197 |

27 | Hamilton A (AZ) | 93.81 | IS-199 |

28 | Great Valley A (PA) | 93.12 | IS-197 |

29 | Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 91.62 | IS-195 |

30 | Santa Monica A (CA) | 90.79 | IS-197 |

31 | Carmel A (IN) | 90.71 | IS-201 |

32 | Centennial A (MD) | 90.59 | IS-197 |

33 | duPont Manual A (KY) | 90.49 | IS-195 |

34 | Miami Valley A (OH) | 89.99 | IS-199 |

35 | Hotchkiss A (CT) | 89.80 | IS-201 |

36 | Mounds View A (MN) | 89.67 | IS-197 |

37 | Belmont A (MA) | 89.47 | IS-197 |

38 | Ed W. Clark A (NV) | 89.26 | IS-201 |

39 | Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 88.88 | IS-201 |

40 | Detroit Country Day B (MI) | 88.84 | IS-199 |

41 | Homestead A (CA) | 88.69 | IS-195 |

42 | Livingston A (NJ) | 88.31 | IS-197 |

43 | Del Norte A (CA) | 87.99 | IS-197 |

44 | Choate A (CT) | 87.99 | IS-201 |

45 | Manheim Township A (PA) | 87.68 | IS-199 |

46 | Irvington A (CA) | 87.43 | IS-195 |

47 | Grady A (GA) | 87.02 | IS-199 |

48 | BASIS Silicon Valley A (CA) | 86.84 | IS-195 |

49 | North Carolina Science and Math A (NC) | 86.20 | IS-199 |

50 | Woodford County A (KY) | 86.16 | IS-195 |

51 | Wayzata C (MN) | 86.07 | IS-197 |

52 | Seven Lakes A (TX) | 85.47 | IS-199 |

53 | John P. Stevens A (NJ) | 84.75 | IS-201 |

54 | Eden Prairie A (MN) | 84.58 | IS-201 |

55 | Westminster A (GA) | 84.52 | IS-201 |

56 | St. Joseph A (IN) | 84.25 | IS-201 |

57 | Wayzata B (MN) | 84.10 | IS-197 |

58 | Solon B (OH) | 84.01 | IS-195 |

59 | Lowell A (CA) | 83.99 | IS-197 |

60 | Maggie Walker Governor’s School B (VA) | 83.80 | IS-195 |

61 | Raymore-Peculiar A (MO) | 83.69 | IS-199 |

62 | Paideia A (GA) | 83.39 | IS-201 |

63 | Caddo Magnet A (LA) | 82.79 | IS-195 |

64 | Maggie Walker Governor’s School A (VA) | 81.98 | IS-195 |

65 | Cinco Ranch A (TX) | 81.60 | IS-201 |

66 | Northmont A (OH) | 81.15 | IS-199 |

67 | Johns Creek A (GA) | 81.08 | IS-201 |

68 | Lynbrook A (CA) | 80.87 | IS-199 |

69 | Westview A (OR) | 80.50 | IS-199 |

70 | Buchholz A (FL) | 80.44 | IS-201 |

71 | Freeman A (VA) | 80.42 | IS-195 |

72 | Carmel B (IN) | 80.22 | IS-195 |

73 | William Henry Harrison A (IN) | 80.05 | IS-201 |

74 | St. Joseph Central A (MO) | 79.93 | IS-199 |

75 | Archbishop Mitty B (CA) | 79.51 | IS-199 |

76 | Monta Vista A (CA) | 79.51 | IS-197 |

77 | Ithaca A (NY) | 79.47 | IS-199 |

78 | Baton Rouge Episcopal A (LA) | 79.36 | IS-199 |

79 | Bellarmine College Prep A (CA) | 79.34 | IS-197 |

80 | Tanglin Trust B (SG) | 79.30 | IS-195 |

81 | Chattahoochee B (GA) | 78.82 | IS-195 |

82 | LASA A (TX) | 78.64 | IS-195 |

83 | Winston Churchill A (MD) | 78.60 | IS-199 |

84 | BASIS Scottsdale A (AZ) | 78.14 | IS-199 |

85 | Northfield A (MN) | 77.97 | IS-197 |

86 | Acton-Boxborough A (MA) | 77.25 | IS-197 |

87 | Jasper A (TX) | 77.23 | IS-195 |

88 | Folsom A (CA) | 77.23 | IS-195 |

89 | Washington A (CA) | 77.12 | IS-197 |

90 | Prior Lake A (MN) | 76.77 | IS-197 |

91 | Coppell A (TX) | 76.74 | IS-197 |

92 | Dunbar A (KY) | 76.55 | IS-201 |

93 | Darien A (CT) | 76.41 | IS-197 |

94 | Archbishop Mitty A (CA) | 76.25 | IS-195 |

95 | Wheeler A (GA) | 76.09 | IS-201 |

96 | Bergen Tech-Teterboro A (NJ) | 76.04 | IS-195 |

97 | Troy A (MI) | 75.90 | IS-201 |

98 | James E. Taylor A (TX) | 75.84 | IS-201 |

99 | BASIS McLean A (VA) | 75.74 | IS-195 |

100 | Mission San Jose A (CA) | 75.65 | IS-199 |

These rankings imagine what the top 100 would look like if we only took into account performances on NAQT sets. Our pre-HSNCT rankings would have ordinarily been NAQT only rankings only including teams attending HSNCT. Why couldn’t we do that this year? If you look at the discrepancy between these NAQT-only rankings and our pre-HSNCT rankings, you’ll notice that we miss NAQT data from a lot of the teams attending HSNCT including the #1 in our pre-HSNCT rankings, TJ A, and essentially all the Illinois teams. As a result, it would probably be misleading to label such a ranking as “pre-HSNCT rankings.” Of course by including both mACF and NAQT sets this makes our current pre-HSNCT rankings not the best measure possible, but that was probably the better of the two choices. This had no bearing on the decision to not have NAQT-only pre-HSNCT rankings, but additionally since there is no SCT set this year, this would have meant that all of the sets for an NAQT-only ranking can only include IS sets and SSNCT. These sets are around HS regular difficulty, and as a result there would be little information about teams’ ability to scale up to harder difficulties, less than say a performance on DII SCT would have in past years.

For me, the most interesting difference between the pre-HSNCT and the NAQT-only rankings (besides several teams being omitted from NAQT-only rankings) is the ordering of the top 4. With TJ A having no NAQT performances, it would be expected that Arcadia A as the #2 ranked team would be the new #1 for NAQT-only rankings. However, Arcadia got bumped down to #4 with the top 3 being 1. SCP B (ranked #5 in the pre-HSNCT rankings), 2. Hunter A (ranked #8 in the pre-HSNCT rankings), and 3. Lambert A (ranked #18 in the pre-HSNCT rankings). Lambert probably has the biggest jump when only NAQT sets are taken into account.

What does this mean? There are certainly teams who are much stronger on NAQT than mACF and vice versa, and as a result being able to look at the NAQT-only rankings could provide clarification into potential HSNCT predictions in a way that overall rankings can not. Of course like stated before there are several teams being omitted from the NAQT-only rankings, and the sets are all much easier than what HSNCT will end up being, but it’s still pretty interesting to look at.

This discussion of considering teams’ abilities to scale takes us to our second alternative ranking modification we will be looking at:

**“Hard Sets”-Only Rankings**

RANK | TEAM | SCORE | BEST SET |

1 | Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 109.45 | BHSAT |

2 | Arcadia A (CA) | 101.50 | STASH |

3 | Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 98.05 | Prison Bowl |

4 | Wayzata A (MN) | 97.02 | STASH |

5 | Georgetown Day A (DC) | 96.69 | LIT |

6 | Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 95.20 | BHSAT |

7 | Stanton College Prep B (FL) | 94.32 | Prison Bowl |

8 | University Lab A (IL) | 93.74 | LIT |

9 | Beavercreek A (OH) | 92.89 | SATURNALIA |

10 | Belmont A (MA) | 92.01 | SATURNALIA |

11 | Hunter A (NY) | 91.74 | WORKSHOP |

12 | Westview A (CA) | 91.52 | IKEA |

13 | Lambert A (GA) | 90.89 | WORKSHOP |

14 | St. Mark’s School of Texas A (TX) | 90.52 | STASH |

15 | Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 90.50 | Prison Bowl |

16 | Detroit Country Day A (MI) | 89.69 | STASH |

17 | Greenhill A (TX) | 89.05 | WORKSHOP |

18 | Stanford Online A (CA) | 88.96 | STASH |

19 | Solon A (OH) | 88.90 | BHSAT |

20 | Kinkaid A (TX) | 88.68 | Prison Bowl |

21 | Barrington A (IL) | 88.24 | BHSAT |

22 | Ladue A (MO) | 87.56 | BHSAT |

23 | Chattahoochee A (GA) | 86.68 | SATURNALIA |

24 | TAG Magnet A (TX) | 86.52 | Prison Bowl |

25 | Buffalo Grove A (IL) | 85.89 | STASH |

26 | East Chapel Hill A (NC) | 85.34 | LIT |

27 | High Tech A (NJ) | 84.36 | BHSAT |

28 | Mira Loma A (CA) | 83.88 | SATURNALIA |

29 | Santa Monica A (CA) | 82.20 | CATT |

30 | Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 80.75 | LIT |

31 | Detroit Country Day B (MI) | 80.63 | STASH |

32 | Great Valley A (PA) | 79.05 | SATURNALIA |

33 | Phillips Academy A (MA) | 78.23 | STASH |

34 | Cinco Ranch A (TX) | 77.85 | STASH |

35 | Mounds View A (MN) | 77.46 | LIT |

36 | North Carolina Science and Math A (NC) | 77.04 | SATURNALIA |

37 | Hunter B (NY) | 76.90 | WORKSHOP |

38 | Homestead A (CA) | 76.85 | STASH |

39 | Ithaca A (NY) | 76.77 | IKEA |

40 | Choate A (CT) | 76.48 | BHSAT |

41 | East Brunswick B (NJ) | 75.88 | BHSAT |

42 | Ridgewood A (NJ) | 75.87 | WORKSHOP |

43 | Chattahoochee B (GA) | 75.63 | SATURNALIA |

44 | Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 75.57 | WORKSHOP |

45 | Hotchkiss A (CT) | 75.49 | Prison Bowl |

46 | Carl Sandburg A (IL) | 75.21 | STASH |

47 | Del Norte A (CA) | 74.52 | LIT |

48 | Harker A (CA) | 74.51 | SATURNALIA |

49 | Bellarmine College Prep A (CA) | 74.29 | STASH |

50 | Woodford County A (KY) | 73.37 | WORKSHOP |

51 | Wayzata C (MN) | 73.07 | Prison Bowl |

52 | Mission San Jose A (CA) | 72.18 | STASH |

53 | Centennial A (MD) | 72.16 | STASH |

54 | Livingston A (NJ) | 71.96 | Prison Bowl |

55 | Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B (VA) | 71.73 | BHSAT |

56 | Baker A (AL) | 71.73 | CATT |

57 | Carmel A (IN) | 71.47 | BHSAT |

58 | Stanton College Prep A (FL) | 71.09 | Prison Bowl |

59 | Macomb A (IL) | 70.95 | STASH |

60 | IMSA A (IL) | 70.94 | IKEA |

61 | Raleigh Charter A (NC) | 70.80 | SATURNALIA |

62 | Boulder A (CO) | 70.76 | BHSAT |

63 | Raymore-Peculiar A (MO) | 70.72 | Prison Bowl |

64 | Lexington A (MA) | 70.31 | BHSAT |

65 | Hoover A (AL) | 69.96 | CATT |

66 | Wayzata B (MN) | 69.80 | Prison Bowl |

67 | Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 69.47 | SATURNALIA |

68 | St. Joseph Central A (MO) | 69.25 | BHSAT |

69 | Irvington A (CA) | 69.23 | STASH |

70 | East Brunswick A (NJ) | 68.77 | SATURNALIA |

71 | Archbishop Mitty B (CA) | 68.56 | STASH |

72 | Westview A (OR) | 68.53 | Prison Bowl |

73 | Miami Valley A (OH) | 68.22 | BHSAT |

74 | Manheim Township A (PA) | 68.13 | SATURNALIA |

75 | Grady A (GA) | 67.64 | CATT |

76 | College Heights Christian A (MO) | 67.54 | BHSAT |

77 | Lowell A (CA) | 67.13 | IKEA |

78 | LASA A (TX) | 66.75 | STASH |

79 | Northfield A (MN) | 66.57 | STASH |

80 | Millburn A (NJ) | 66.56 | SATURNALIA |

81 | Adlai E. Stevenson B (IL) | 65.95 | LIT |

82 | Trinity School A (NY) | 65.53 | SATURNALIA |

83 | Archbishop Mitty A (CA) | 65.18 | LIT |

84 | Westview B (CA) | 63.92 | LIT |

85 | Buchholz A (FL) | 63.55 | Prison Bowl |

86 | Naperville North A (IL) | 63.48 | BHSAT |

87 | Winston Churchill A (MD) | 62.64 | STASH |

88 | BASIS McLean A (VA) | 62.49 | SATURNALIA |

89 | Dublin A (CA) | 61.79 | STASH |

90 | Canyon Crest A (CA) | 61.72 | SATURNALIA |

91 | Paideia A (GA) | 61.54 | Prison Bowl |

92 | Caddo Magnet A (LA) | 61.53 | STASH |

93 | La Jolla A (CA) | 61.30 | STASH |

94 | John P. Stevens A (NJ) | 60.55 | Prison Bowl |

95 | St. Joseph A (IN) | 60.49 | STASH |

96 | Beavercreek B (OH) | 60.30 | BHSAT |

97 | Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech C (VA) | 60.28 | Prison Bowl |

98 | Santa Monica B (CA) | 60.17 | STASH |

99 | Barrington B (IL) | 60.03 | Prison Bowl |

100 | Darien A (CT) | 59.96 | Prison Bowl |

For the “Hard Sets”-only rankings, we remove all the HS regular and similar difficulty sets from the system, keeping only the HS regs+, HS Nats, and the college sets in order to rank teams based on how they did on harder sets. The scores are a little bit deflated here since we had to change the baseline set since IS-195 would not be included as one of the hard sets, but the actual scores probably don’t matter as much as the relative difference in scores/ordering of teams.

The top 4 in the pre-HSNCT and hard sets only rankings are the same with #5 being different probably only due to the fact that GDS A is not attending HSNCT. There are slight variances here and there – Lambert for example jumps from #18 in pre-HSNCT rankings to #13 in the hard sets only rankings and Westview jumps from #17 in pre-HSNCT rankings to #12 in the hard sets only rankings. There are also changes in the other direction (my team of Stevenson unfortunately being one of the ones that slip when only hard sets are considered).

How much does this mean? Not sure. For some teams the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that they have not had as many opportunities to play harder sets, for others maybe playing harder sets allowed them to separate themselves from the rest of the field more than they could on regular difficulty sets. “Scaling up” or being able to play nearly as well on harder difficulty sets as on regular difficulty sets is a good skill to have for nationals where the questions will be much harder than on regular difficulty, so seeing how teams do on harder difficulty sets is useful for this measure.

Personally, I think the combination of NAQT-only rankings and hard sets only rankings allows us to better appreciate Lambert’s status as a title contender for HSNCT than the actual pre-HSNCT rankings do. That to me is the fun of looking through these alternative modifications – people can decide what they value as important in a team’s past performances and look at the appropriate modified rankings.

Of course whenever discussion of past performances on hard sets comes up, there comes the argument that hard sets are in fact detrimental to accurate ranking of teams. The argument goes that since college sets in particular have such high adjustments, this leads to inflated rankings for teams that play college sets. So the question naturally arises: how different would the rankings be if we excluded college sets?

That takes us to the third and final alternative ranking modification we will be looking at:

**HS Set-Only Rankings**

RANK | TEAM | SCORE | BEST SET |

1 | Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 127.43 | BHSAT |

2 | Arcadia A (CA) | 115.81 | STASH |

3 | Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 114.70 | Prison Bowl |

4 | Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 113.91 | BHSAT |

5 | Wayzata A (MN) | 113.02 | STASH |

6 | Stanton College Prep B (FL) | 111.60 | Prison Bowl |

7 | Beavercreek A (OH) | 111.28 | LONE STAR |

8 | Hunter A (NY) | 110.58 | DART |

9 | Georgetown Day A (DC) | 109.24 | BHSAT |

10 | Solon A (OH) | 109.18 | MCMT |

11 | Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 107.85 | Prison Bowl |

12 | St. Mark’s School of Texas A (TX) | 107.61 | STASH |

13 | Belmont A (MA) | 107.17 | SATURNALIA |

14 | Chattahoochee A (GA) | 107.13 | RAFT |

15 | TAG Magnet A (TX) | 106.72 | DART |

16 | Detroit Country Day A (MI) | 106.68 | MCMT |

17 | University Lab A (IL) | 106.56 | RAFT |

18 | Kinkaid A (TX) | 105.03 | Prison Bowl |

19 | Ladue A (MO) | 104.33 | BHSAT |

20 | Barrington A (IL) | 103.77 | BHSAT |

21 | Lambert A (GA) | 103.43 | IS-199 |

22 | Greenhill A (TX) | 102.99 | MCMT |

23 | Stanford Online A (CA) | 102.37 | STASH |

24 | East Chapel Hill A (NC) | 101.29 | LONE STAR |

25 | Westview A (CA) | 101.19 | MCMT |

26 | Buffalo Grove A (IL) | 100.71 | STASH |

27 | High Tech A (NJ) | 100.69 | BHSAT |

28 | Phillips Academy A (MA) | 99.79 | IS-199 |

29 | Mira Loma A (CA) | 99.25 | LONE STAR |

30 | Santa Monica A (CA) | 98.52 | CATT |

31 | Russell A (KY) | 98.07 | Scottie |

32 | Detroit Country Day B (MI) | 97.61 | CATT |

33 | Burnsville A (MN) | 96.49 | IS-201 |

34 | Chattahoochee B (GA) | 96.06 | DART |

35 | Great Valley A (PA) | 95.73 | RAFT |

36 | East Brunswick B (NJ) | 95.24 | IS-199 |

37 | Woodford County A (KY) | 95.08 | Scottie |

38 | Raffles A (SG) | 94.96 | IS-195 |

39 | Hunter B (NY) | 94.03 | IS-197 |

40 | Hamilton A (AZ) | 93.75 | IS-199 |

41 | Mounds View A (MN) | 93.28 | LONE STAR |

42 | Macomb A (IL) | 93.16 | DART |

43 | Carmel A (IN) | 92.60 | LONE STAR |

44 | North Carolina Science and Math A (NC) | 92.22 | SATURNALIA |

45 | Westview A (OR) | 92.07 | DART |

46 | Homestead A (CA) | 91.71 | IS-195 |

47 | Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 91.53 | DART |

48 | Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 91.42 | IS-195 |

49 | Miami Valley A (OH) | 91.39 | Scottie |

50 | Hotchkiss A (CT) | 90.96 | Prison Bowl |

51 | Centennial A (MD) | 90.70 | IS-197 |

52 | Choate A (CT) | 90.66 | BHSAT |

53 | East Brunswick A (NJ) | 90.62 | IS-199 |

54 | William Fremd A (IL) | 90.52 | RAFT |

55 | duPont Manual A (KY) | 90.21 | IS-195 |

56 | Carl Sandburg A (IL) | 89.49 | STASH |

57 | St. Joseph Central A (MO) | 89.20 | Scottie |

58 | Ridgewood A (NJ) | 89.13 | BHSAT |

59 | Del Norte A (CA) | 88.89 | LONE STAR |

60 | Ed W. Clark A (NV) | 88.61 | IS-201 |

61 | Wayzata C (MN) | 88.34 | IS-197 |

62 | Manheim Township A (PA) | 88.10 | IS-199 |

63 | Cinco Ranch A (TX) | 87.92 | STASH |

64 | Raymore-Peculiar A (MO) | 87.86 | DART |

65 | BASIS Silicon Valley A (CA) | 87.79 | IS-195 |

66 | Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 87.75 | DART |

67 | Wayzata B (MN) | 87.61 | LONE STAR |

68 | Livingston A (NJ) | 87.33 | IS-197 |

69 | Hoover A (AL) | 87.33 | Spring Novice |

70 | Irvington A (CA) | 87.12 | IS-195 |

71 | Baker A (AL) | 86.95 | CATT |

72 | Dunbar A (KY) | 86.82 | DART |

73 | Grady A (GA) | 86.21 | IS-199 |

74 | College Heights Christian A (MO) | 86.17 | MCMT |

75 | Harker A (CA) | 85.67 | SATURNALIA |

76 | IMSA A (IL) | 85.65 | RAFT |

77 | Seven Lakes A (TX) | 85.44 | IS-199 |

78 | Lowell A (CA) | 85.23 | IS-197 |

79 | Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B (VA) | 85.17 | BHSAT |

80 | Archbishop Mitty B (CA) | 84.48 | LONE STAR |

81 | Mission San Jose A (CA) | 84.48 | STASH |

82 | Caddo Magnet A (LA) | 84.45 | RAFT |

83 | Eden Prairie A (MN) | 84.32 | IS-201 |

84 | Boulder A (CO) | 84.25 | BHSAT |

85 | Bellarmine College Prep A (CA) | 84.23 | STASH |

86 | Raleigh Charter A (NC) | 84.09 | Spring Novice |

87 | Maggie Walker Governor’s School B (VA) | 83.80 | IS-195 |

88 | Solon B (OH) | 83.61 | IS-195 |

89 | John P. Stevens A (NJ) | 83.43 | IS-199 |

90 | Paideia A (GA) | 83.01 | IS-201 |

91 | Kirksville A (MO) | 82.97 | MCMT |

92 | Lexington A (MA) | 82.67 | BHSAT |

93 | Stanton College Prep A (FL) | 82.17 | Prison Bowl |

94 | St. Joseph A (IN) | 81.72 | IS-201 |

95 | Waukee A (IA) | 81.55 | LONE STAR |

96 | Adlai E. Stevenson B (IL) | 81.49 | RAFT |

97 | St. Louis Patriots A (MO) | 81.47 | MCMT |

98 | Northmont A (OH) | 81.20 | IS-199 |

99 | Westminster A (GA) | 81.03 | IS-201 |

100 | Troy A (MI) | 80.99 | LONE STAR |

You can look at the pre-HSNCT rankings again. To me, though, these rankings don’t seem that different with or without college sets. I really don’t have much commentary to add here – I think people were likely overly concerned about the inflating impact of college sets more last semester and that makes sense since there were two big college sets (LIT and IKEA) that a lot of the top teams could have played, and not that many actual high school sets. As the season went on these teams played more high school sets and also a lot of them happened to improve, so it became more likely that their top performance was no longer a college set but a high school set.

It is also harder to distinguish teams at the high school regular level just because there is a ceiling at some point on how many powers per game and PPB that even top teams can put up on an IS set or whatever. That also makes sense then that the adjustments would elevate stronger performances on harder sets – since its easier for the top teams to differentiate into tiers then when not every bonus will be 30d, or every tossup powered.

(I separately have the take that top teams in circuits with an abundance of sets should not play high school regular sets at a certain point, but that is probably a discussion for another day.)

Even when removing college sets, the top scores for most of these teams comes from HS regs+ or HS nats level sets. I’m sure you could then ponder what the scores would look like if only high school regular sets were considered in order to remove “inflation” from more difficult sets, but that doesn’t seem particularly interesting to look at (at least in my opinion.)

Anyways, with that, that concludes this analysis of sorts. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it! A reminder that our pre-nationals poll https://hsquizbowl.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=25112 is still open until Thursday, May 27, 2021 at 11:59 PM CDT.

Good luck at HSNCT for those participating, and for the rest of you hope you have a great rest of the year! On a personal note, with this being my last year of high school quizbowl I just want to take one last moment to thank the quizbowl community for everything it has given me. Obviously this community is far from perfect, but I’m not sure what my high school experience would have been like without it.

Thanks!

**Arjun Nageswaran is currently a senior at Adlai E. Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire, Illinois**

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