The following article was a contribution by Groger Ranks member Arjun Nageswaran
So as you may (or may not) know, ever since we started back in October, Groger Ranks has been ranking teams on their best performance only. This seemed to make sense when we started, as taking improvement into account ahead of nationals, every team’s best importance would be the best indicator of their final finish. After all, it is very rare that a team gets worse throughout an entire school year.
However, there were inherent flaws with this. By only including the best performance, we were allowing for momentary flashes of greatness to determine a team’s standing, rather than rewarding consistently good performances. Thus, a streaky team with one very good tournament would be ranked higher than a consistently good team with consistently good performances, but a slightly worse best tournament – despite being probably the worst team of the two.
Glancing at the rankings, we can see which set was the set where each team got their best score. There are a lot of holdovers from the earlier sets of the season, meaning that the ranking was not accurately depicting the top teams overall. We began to wonder, how could we create rankings that rewarded consistent good performances over one-off good performances.
The top 25 teams overall with our normal best score rankings were as follows:
| Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 119.63 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Beavercreek A (OH) | 116.50 | CAST |
| Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 116.50 | IS 179 |
| Hunter A (NY) | 115.71 | IS 177 |
| Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 114.78 | WHAQ III |
| Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 113.28 | WHAQ III |
| James E. Taylor A (TX) | 112.93 | WHAQ III |
| IMSA A (IL) | 111.61 | HFT XIII |
| Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 109.55 | HFT XIII |
| Wilmington Charter A (DE) | 109.28 | CAST |
| Chattahoochee A (GA) | 108.90 | Scottie 2018 |
| Canyon Crest A (CA) | 108.87 | WHAQ III |
| Ladue A (MO) | 108.45 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Wayzata A (MN) | 107.95 | IS 177 |
| High Tech A (NJ) | 107.62 | Prison Bowl XII |
| Ithaca A (NY) | 107.31 | IS 181 |
| Miami Valley A (OH) | 107.16 | CAST |
| University Lab A (IL) | 106.94 | WHAQ III |
| Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 104.86 | IS 183 |
| LASA A (TX) | 103.97 | IS 183 |
| Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 103.90 | IS 183 |
| Lexington A (MA) | 102.73 | IS 181 |
| Arcadia A (CA) | 102.64 | RMBAT |
| Carnegie Vanguard A (TX) | 102.39 | WHAQ III |
| Stanford Online A (CA) | 100.44 | WHAQ III |
Now, I switched it so instead of ranking based on best score, it would rank on the second best score if a team had played more than one set. If a team had only played one set, it would still only rank the best score.
| Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 118.25 | Penn Bowl 2018 |
| Beavercreek A (OH) | 110.97 | CAST |
| James E. Taylor A (TX) | 109.19 | SCT DII 2019 |
| IMSA A (IL) | 108.71 | ILLIAC |
| Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 108.46 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Wayzata A (MN) | 106.78 | EFT 2018 |
| Chattahoochee A (GA) | 106.00 | Scottie 2018 |
| Ladue A (MO) | 105.42 | BHSAT |
| Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 105.28 | ILLIAC |
| Hunter A (NY) | 105.19 | IS 179 |
| University Lab A (IL) | 104.37 | Sun God |
| Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 104.01 | CAST |
| LASA A (TX) | 103.76 | HFT XIII |
| Ithaca A (NY) | 102.79 | FST |
| Miami Valley A (OH) | 102.36 | IS 179 |
| High Tech A (NJ) | 102.35 | IS 177 |
| Lexington A (MA) | 101.69 | IS 177 |
| Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 101.50 | Sun God |
| Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 101.30 | BHSAT |
| Canyon Crest A (CA) | 101.01 | ILLIAC |
| Wilmington Charter A (DE) | 99.36 | IS 183 |
| Arcadia A (CA) | 99.18 | HFT XIII |
| Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 98.05 | IS 177 |
| Northview A (GA) | 97.83 | HFT XIII (same as best score) |
| Troy A (NY) | 96.97 | IS 179 |
There are some similarities between the teams involved in both to be sure. TJ , in particular, noted for a very strong season this year despite playing few tournaments with its full roster, holds on to the top position. Beavercreek, the number 2 in the original rankings, holds its position. However, in number 3, there is a big drop for Stevenson High School from third to ninth. This represents the main problem there was in the original rankings. Stevenson’s top score all this time has been from its performance on IS 179 at the Kickoff tournament back in November. Yet this was seemingly a one-off performance as their second best performance was significantly worse – not only from Stevenson’s best score, but also in comparison to the second best scores of the other teams.
Then, we thought, why not go one step further. What if we were to compare the third best scores of all the teams (or second best scores for teams with only two scores, or best scores with teams only one score)? What would we see then?
| Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 114.14 | RMBAT |
| Beavercreek A (OH) | 109.61 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Wayzata A (MN) | 106.78 | EFT 2018 |
| Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 104.53 | Sun God |
| University Lab A (IL) | 103.21 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Hunter A (NY) | 102.69 | SCT DII 2019 |
| James E. Taylor A (TX) | 102.65 | Terrapin |
| Miami Valley A (OH) | 102.06 | Scottie 2018 |
| High Tech A (NJ) | 101.73 | RMBAT |
| LASA A (TX) | 101.64 | Penn Bowl 2018 |
| Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 101.49 | IS 177 |
| Chattahoochee A (GA) | 101.48 | ILLIAC |
| Ladue A (MO) | 101.40 | ATHENA II |
| Ithaca A (NY) | 100.27 | IS 177 |
| Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 99.85 | SCT DII 2019 |
| Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 98.34 | ILLIAC |
| IMSA A (IL) | 98.16 | WHAQ III |
| Northview A (GA) | 97.83 | HFT XIII |
| Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 97.82 | IS 181 |
| Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 96.65 | HFT XIII |
| Arcadia A (CA) | 95.90 | IS 181 |
| Lexington A (MA) | 94.21 | IS 179 |
| Wilmington Charter A (DE) | 93.44 | Penn Bowl 2018 |
| Stanford Online A (CA) | 93.09 | BHSAT |
| Canyon Crest A (CA) | 92.39 | HFT XIII |
Here, we see a big leap from Wayzata, a very strong team to be sure, but not even top 10 in the normal rankings, let alone top 3. It is clear here that Wayzata is a consistently strong team, yet the rankings would never showcase this. So we decided to embark on a system of weighted rankings. We’d still reward teams for their highest scores, but also add weighting so that their second best and third best scores would factor in.
For teams with at least three scores, their new weighted Groger Score would be 3*Best Score + 2*second best score + third best score/6
For teams with at least two scores, their new weighted Groger Score would be 2*Best Score + second best score/3
For teams with only one score, their weighted Groger Score would obviously be that score.
So how would this all work out? With the weighting applied, these are the new top 25:
| Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A (VA) | 119.35 |
| Beavercreek A (OH) | 113.06 |
| Adlai E. Stevenson A (IL) | 110.36 |
| James E. Taylor A (TX) | 110.09 |
| Hunter A (NY) | 110.04 |
| Montgomery Blair A (MD) | 109.83 |
| IMSA A (IL) | 109.14 |
| Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) | 108.29 |
| Chattahoochee A (GA) | 107.83 |
| Wayzata A (MN) | 107.56 |
| Ladue A (MO) | 107.36 |
| Rockford Auburn A (IL) | 105.99 |
| University Lab A (IL) | 105.58 |
| High Tech A (NJ) | 104.96 |
| Ithaca A (NY) | 104.46 |
| Miami Valley A (OH) | 104.07 |
| LASA A (TX) | 103.96 |
| Canyon Crest A (CA) | 103.62 |
| Richard Montgomery A (MD) | 103.03 |
| Strake Jesuit A (TX) | 101.39 |
| Lexington A (MA) | 100.79 |
| Wilmington Charter A (DE) | 100.57 |
| Arcadia A (CA) | 99.90 |
| Stanford Online A (CA) | 98.15 |
| Northview A (GA) | 97.83 |
The top 3 remain unchanged, although the gap between Beavercreek and Stevenson shifts from 0 to a more significant amount, in line with the consistency factors we see in their second and third best scores. Overall, this new ranking scheme rewards consistency over anomalous strong performances, and we hope that this will reflect a more accurate a system of rankings.
So how can we be sure that this new system of weighted rankings will work? We can’t. However, we have our first test of weighted rankings this weekend at SSNCT. Our pre-nationals rankings for SSNCT was the first rankings where we tested out weights.
Here is what the normal, un-weighted SSNCT rankings would look like:
| Miami Valley A (OH; Open) | 105.88 | IS 177 |
| Greens Farms A (CT; Open) | 105.69 | IS 184A |
| High Tech A (NJ; Open) | 102.35 | IS 177 |
| St. Mark’s A (TX; Open) | 94.07 | IS 178A |
| Ottawa Hills A (OH; Public) | 93.45 | IS 178A |
| BASIS McLean A (VA; Open) | 92.02 | IS 182A |
| Parish Episcopal A (TX; Open) | 90.90 | IS 178A |
| Greenhill A (TX; Open) | 88.66 | IS 178A |
| Early College at Guilford A (NC; Open) | 88.04 | IS 179 |
| High Tech B (NJ; Open) | 87.34 | SCT DII 2019 |
| BASIS Scottsdale A (AZ; Open) | 85.05 | IS 180A |
| Glasgow A (KY; Public) | 84.36 | IS 176A |
| Friends Select A (PA; Open) | 83.33 | IS 184A |
| Altamont A (AL; Open) | 81.80 | IS 177 |
| Collegiate High at NWFSC A (FL; Open) | 81.00 | IS 176A |
| St. Anselm’s A (DC; Open) | 80.53 | IS 180A |
| St. Mark’s B (TX; Open) | 80.17 | IS 179 |
| Latin School B (IL; Open) | 75.97 | IS 180A |
| Itawamba Agricultural A (MS; Public) | 75.14 | IS 182A |
| Russell A (KY; Public) | 74.93 | IS 184A |
| Chicago Christian A (IL; Open) | 74.75 | IS 180A |
| Winchester Thurston A (PA; Open) | 74.74 | IS 180A |
| Middlesboro A (KY; Public) | 73.68 | IS 183 |
| Latin School A (IL; Open) | 70.90 | IS 179 |
| Early College at Guilford B (NC; Open) | 69.53 | IS 176A |
This is what our weighted rankings look like:
| Miami Valley A (OH; Open) | 103.38 |
| High Tech A (NJ; Open) | 96.88 |
| Greens Farms A (CT; Open) | 96.37 |
| St. Mark’s A (TX; Open) | 92.58 |
| Ottawa Hills A (OH; Public) | 90.58 |
| Parish Episcopal A (TX; Open) | 88.80 |
| BASIS McLean A (VA; Open) | 88.05 |
| Greenhill A (TX; Open) | 85.96 |
| Early College at Guilford A (NC; Open) | 85.49 |
| Glasgow A (KY; Public) | 81.03 |
| BASIS Scottsdale A (AZ; Open) | 80.83 |
| High Tech B (NJ; Open) | 80.77 |
| St. Anselm’s A (DC; Open) | 80.53 |
| Altamont A (AL; Open) | 79.41 |
| Friends Select A (PA; Open) | 78.98 |
| St. Mark’s B (TX; Open) | 77.04 |
| Chicago Christian A (IL; Open) | 74.75 |
| Collegiate High at NWFSC A (FL; Open) | 74.16 |
| Middlesboro A (KY; Public) | 71.93 |
| Latin School B (IL; Open) | 71.41 |
| Russell A (KY; Public) | 70.86 |
| Itawamba Agricultural A (MS; Public) | 69.50 |
| Latin School A (IL; Open) | 69.01 |
| Breck A (MN; Open) | 67.01 |
| St. Andrew’s A (MS; Open) | 66.47 |
These don’t seem incredibly different, but there are some notable discrepancies between the two sets – namely the #2 ranked team, whether it be Green Farms Academy or High Tech. We will be following the SSNCT results closely, and see whether our gamble to go with weighted rankings was the right move to make, or if traditional rankings remain the best indicator of performance.
Thanks as always for your continued support of Groger Ranks.
This post was brought to you by our subscribers at Patreon: Fred Morlan, Vikshar Athreya, Felix Wang, and Sindhu Nair. Please consider supporting Groger Ranks by subscribing to Patreon at patreon.com/grogerranks!
Arjun Nageswaran is currently a sophomore at Adlai E. Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire, Illinois
grogerranks.com 
High quality analysis from a good man
LikeLike
Again, I appreciate the effort, however, Kickapoo beat Fort Zumwalt North twice this past weekend at the Missouri State Tournament and we aren’t ranked. Additionally, Louisiana A in Missouri didn’t even make top 4 in their class at State and College Heights and Thayer both 1st and 2nd in class 2 didn’t make the rankings. Just because the tournament’s didn’t have power doesn’t mean a weaker team. It is difficult to find a lot of tournaments with powers. Thanks!
LikeLike
Very correct rankings.
LikeLike